3 Aug · 07:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Matviichuk
ELO 1388
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Matviichuk
DN
🇺🇦Dmytro Novik
ELO 1341
FormWLLWW
55%
45%
🌟Novik stays under total as underdog 72% (36)
Fair odds · Matviichuk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H14-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-6)