3 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Matviichuk
ELO 1388
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lysyi
AL
🇺🇦Anatoliy Lysyi
ELO 1398
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
⚡ Cover lean · Lysyi🌟Matviichuk stays under total as underdog 75% (53)
Fair odds · Lysyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~71 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H16-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.