4 Aug · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1572
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Rak
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1642
FormWWLWW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shcherbak
Fair odds · Rak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H43-37
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-37)