4 Aug · 06:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇺🇦Anton Molochko
ELO 1778
FormWLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Molochko
VV
🇺🇦Vasily Verbyany
ELO 1720
FormWWLWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Verbyany🌟Verbyany covers set handicap as underdog 64% (98)
Fair odds · Molochko
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H104-53
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (104-53)