4 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1460
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Polak
JP
🇺🇦Jaroslav Puk
ELO 1424
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Puk🌟Polak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 11% (19)
Fair odds · Polak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.