4 Aug · 08:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1578
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Rulc
LS
🇺🇦Lukas Svoboda
ELO 1532
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Svoboda🌟Svoboda covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 43% · 2.32· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H3-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)