4 Aug · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1578
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Rulc
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1512
FormWLLWL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Liska🌟Liska covers set handicap as underdog 63% (105)
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H54-40
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (54-40)