4 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PM
🇺🇦Pavel Moulis
ELO 1444
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Moulis
JP
🇺🇦Jaroslav Puk
ELO 1424
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Moulis stays under total as favourite 67% (15)
Fair odds · Moulis
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H9-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.