4 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1460
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Polak
JS
🇺🇦Jan Seeman
ELO 1450
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Seeman🌟Polak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 11% (19)
Fair odds · Polak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.