4 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇺🇦Pavel Moulis
ELO 1444
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Seeman
JS
🇺🇦Jan Seeman
ELO 1450
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Seeman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.