4 Aug · 08:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
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🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1562
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Derevianko
YS
🇺🇦Yevhen Skorobahatyi
ELO 1538
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Skorobahatyi stays under total as underdog 80% (15)
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H18-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.