4 Aug · 10:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1562
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Riadynskyi
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1580
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H66-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.