5 Aug · 12:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FV
🇺🇦Fedir Voinarovskyi
ELO 1531
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1543
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Voinarovskyi stays under total as underdog 69% (26)
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.