5 Aug · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OV
🇺🇦Oleg Varlamov
ELO 1525
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Varlamov
RS
🇺🇦Ruslan Sopivnyk
ELO 1504
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sopivnyk🌟Varlamov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (46)
Fair odds · Varlamov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H14-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.