5 Aug · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PP
🇺🇦Petr Provaznik
ELO 1502
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Provaznik
JS
🇺🇦Jakub Simek
ELO 1492
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Provaznik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (39)
Fair odds · Provaznik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H7-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.