5 Aug · 12:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PP
🇺🇦Petr Provaznik
ELO 1502
FormWLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Svitac
MS
🇺🇦Matej Svitac
ELO 1555
FormLLLLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Svitac
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H8-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-3)