5 Aug · 13:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1550
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Martyniuk
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1543
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Karpenko🌟Martyniuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (40)
Fair odds · Martyniuk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H2-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.