7 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇺🇦Marian Melisek
ELO 1443
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dvoracek
AD
🇺🇦Adam Dvoracek
ELO 1476
FormWLLWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Melisek🌟Melisek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (67)
Fair odds · Dvoracek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H24-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.