7 Aug · 11:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YO
🇺🇦Yehor Opryshchenko
ELO 1568
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Opryshchenko
GK
🇺🇦Gregory Kuzmenko
ELO 1557
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Opryshchenko stays under total as favourite 62% (40)
Fair odds · Opryshchenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.