7 Aug · 07:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇺🇦Anatolii Kovalenko
ELO 1445
FormLLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Populovskyi
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1496
FormWWWWW
45%
55%
🌟Kovalenko stays under total as underdog 66% (35)
Fair odds · Populovskyi
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H15-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-13)