7 Aug · 07:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1440
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Honcharenko
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Matviichuk
ELO 1416
FormWWWWW
53%
47%
🌟Matviichuk stays under total as underdog 75% (55)
Fair odds · Honcharenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H59-52
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.