8 Aug · 06:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Baranskyi
ELO 1451
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ovsiienko
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ovsiienko
ELO 1459
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Baranskyi stays under total as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Ovsiienko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.