8 Aug · 07:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YT
🇺🇦Yaroslav Tebenko
ELO 1552
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tebenko
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Moshovskyi
ELO 1544
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moshovskyi🌟Tebenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (64)
Fair odds · Tebenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H13-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.