8 Aug · 06:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1525
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Storozhenko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Storozhenko
ELO 1564
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fashchevskyi🌟Storozhenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (150)
Fair odds · Storozhenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H14-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.