8 Aug · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1541
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kovalchuk
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1514
FormLLLWW
53%
47%
🌟Kovalchuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (119)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 45% · 2.21· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H11-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.