8 Aug · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1494
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lazebnyi
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebnyi
ELO 1519
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Napirko🌟Lazebnyi rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (17)
Fair odds · Lazebnyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.