8 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Ponomarenko
ELO 1448
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ponomarenko
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Priadko
ELO 1420
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Priadko
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.