9 Aug · 13:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Mykola Slozka
ELO 1525
FormWWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Hrybeniuk
VH
🇺🇦Volodymyr Hrybeniuk
ELO 1528
FormLLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Hrybeniuk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.