9 Aug · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VV
🇺🇦Valerii Vlasenko
ELO 1419
FormWLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Napirko
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1506
FormWWWLL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vlasenko🌟Vlasenko covers set handicap as underdog 66% (182)
Fair odds · Napirko
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H71-58
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (71-58)