9 Aug · 08:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YS
🇺🇦Yurii Shmyndra
ELO 1486
FormWLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kovalchuk
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1542
FormWLWLW
44%
56%
🌟Kovalchuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (120)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)