9 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1599
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zelinka
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1568
FormLWWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Zelinka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (37)
Fair odds · Zelinka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.