9 Aug · 09:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1563
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Makara
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1568
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Rulc covers set handicap as underdog 64% (73)
Fair odds · Makara
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H37-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.