9 Aug · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1599
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zelinka
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1563
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rulc🌟Zelinka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (37)
Fair odds · Zelinka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
17%
Elo Gap+36
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.