9 Aug · 08:35 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1506
FormWWWLL
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Napirko
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1392
FormWLLLL
62%
38%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 65% (134)
Fair odds · Napirko
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 45%Total ~74 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
22%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
1-3
14%
Elo Gap+114
H2H30-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+114)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-26)