9 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1474
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Hanacek
JH
🇺🇦Josef Hanacek
ELO 1513
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🌟Hanacek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (83)
Fair odds · Hanacek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H15-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.