9 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1474
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Polak
JS
🇺🇦Jan Seeman
ELO 1449
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Seeman🌟Polak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 16% (25)
Fair odds · Polak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H10-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.