9 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1474
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Polak
KJ
🇺🇦Karel Jirousek
ELO 1464
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jirousek🌟Polak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 16% (25)
Fair odds · Polak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.