9 Aug · 10:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1503
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kurtenko
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kurtenko
ELO 1519
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kurtenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.