10 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1430
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Leonenko
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1421
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stukalov🌟Leonenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (73)
Fair odds · Leonenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H12-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.