10 Aug · 07:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1430
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Leonenko
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1394
FormLWLWW
54%
46%
🌟Leonenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (73)
Fair odds · Leonenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
17%
Elo Gap+36
H2H42-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.