10 Aug · 07:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YU
🇺🇦Yurii Urezchenko
ELO 1267
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Shvydkyi
OS
🇺🇦Oleg Shvydkyi
ELO 1276
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Shvydkyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.