10 Aug · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1631
FormWWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Heinzl
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1574
FormLWWWL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 68% (176)
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H15-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-12)