10 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇺🇦Anatoliy Lysyi
ELO 1406
FormWWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Matviichuk
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Matviichuk
ELO 1411
FormLWWWL
50%
50%
🌟Lysyi covers set handicap as underdog 62% (45)
Fair odds · Matviichuk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H17-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.