11 Aug · 12:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AN
🇺🇦Anatolii Nikolenko
ELO 1407
FormWLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Nikolenko
PM
🇺🇦Pavlo Melnichuk
ELO 1358
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Nikolenko
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H8-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-0)