11 Aug · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1614
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zelinka
RP
🇺🇦Radovan Pisa
ELO 1574
FormWLWWW
54%
46%
🌟Zelinka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (47)
Fair odds · Zelinka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H12-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.