11 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1483
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Plyska
JS
🇺🇦Jan Seeman
ELO 1445
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Seeman🌟Seeman covers set handicap as underdog 68% (47)
Fair odds · Plyska
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.