11 Aug · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1483
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Plyska
PM
🇺🇦Pavel Moulis
ELO 1435
FormLLWLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moulis🌟Moulis covers set handicap as underdog 71% (17)
Fair odds · Plyska
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)