11 Aug · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IK
🇺🇦Ivan Kozachuk
ELO 1576
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kozachuk
IR
🇺🇦Ivan Romaniak
ELO 1536
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romaniak🌟Romaniak covers set handicap as underdog 62% (158)
Fair odds · Kozachuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H33-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.