11 Aug · 06:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1502
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Karpenko
VB
🇺🇦Volodymyr Bilobrov
ELO 1495
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
🌟Bilobrov stays under total as underdog 64% (28)
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.