11 Aug · 08:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1614
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Zelinka
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1571
FormWWLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam🌟Zelinka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (47)
Fair odds · Zelinka
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H11-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-7)